1. Executive summary
The proposition. Form a US domestic corporation ("NewCo", Connecticut) that sells and delivers residential solar, storage and attached roofing/HVAC in Connecticut, Rhode Island and Massachusetts. Sales are 1099 commission reps recruited and led by Dan Katzman. Lead generation, design, permitting packets, procurement and finance paperwork run from Surat, India, on the back of an operation already doing 300 to 400 installs a month there. Installation is subcontracted to an established local EPC at a labour-only rate. NewCo owns the customer, the finance-partner accounts and the equipment supply.
Why now. New England pays 30 to 37 cents per kWh, the highest retail power prices on the mainland. The US residential market is down about 20% in 2026 with another 10 to 15% expected in 2027, which has put experienced reps (PosiGen bankruptcy, Trinity departures) and distressed installers on the market cheaply. The homeowner tax credit is gone, so 70 to 80% of deals are now third-party-owned (TPO) through LightReach and Enfin, which favours operators with low installed cost and clean paperwork over operators with big local overhead.
The economics in one line. On a 9 kW system at a $2.70/W red line, NewCo makes $1,800 gross per deal riding a partner's finance accounts, $3,150 on its own accounts, and $5,400 once it also procures equipment directly. The plan is to move through those three stages inside 15 months. Fixed cost is about $24k a month because almost everything is variable or offshore.
The ask. $500k of committed capital released in three tranches against measured gates: a $75k 90-day pilot, a $175k build-out once lead cost and cancellation rates are proven, and $250k of working capital as volume passes 30 installs a month. Base case reaches EBITDA break-even in month 10, needs $400k of peak cash, and produces $1.8M EBITDA in year two on $17M revenue and $2.7M in year three on $22M. The conservative case does not break even inside two years and is why the gates exist.
2. Company and team
| Entity | US LLC/C-corp (Connecticut), HIC licences in CT, MA, RI; master electrician (E1) partner on the licence; workers comp for the single W-2 employee. Branded and presented as an American company backed by an Indian group. |
|---|---|
| Ownership | Indian group (Keyur Rakholiya and partners) majority; Siddharth Gangal (growth, organiser); Dan Katzman salary plus 5 to 10c/W override and vesting equity. |
| US boots on the ground | Dan Katzman: American face, rep recruiting and management, EPC and finance-partner relationships, NOI software. One junior ops person in Connecticut for AHJ permit hand-delivery, site photos and rep support. |
| India back office (Surat) | 3 FTE at launch rising to 6: system design, permit packets and PE-stamp coordination, interconnection filings, LightReach/Enfin/Climate First submissions, procurement, rep scheduling, AI-assisted appointment confirmation. Already serving US design and permit clients today. |
| Install partner | HelioSolar (Brian Tilford, CT) or Team Sunshine as labour-only subcontractor at a target $0.80/W, operating from a dedicated LLC. Massachusetts HVAC/solar firm as a second partner once its recapitalisation closes. |
| Finance partners | LightReach and Enfin (TPO), Climate First Bank / OneEthos (loans), CT Green Bank SSA approval, Midas Wealth (tax-equity prepaid lease) as a third product later. |
3. Market
Bottom-up sizing for the three launch states. Figures are order-of-magnitude estimates assembled for planning and should be replaced with SEIA state data before any investor use.
| Layer | Definition | Estimate |
|---|---|---|
| TAM | Owner-occupied single-family homes in CT, MA, RI with a viable roof (roughly 2.8M owner households, about 40% suitable) at a 9 kW system and $3.20/W contract value | ~1.1M homes, ~$32B lifetime |
| SAM | Annual residential installs in the three states after the 2026 downturn (about 25k to 30k systems a year) times 9 kW times $3.20/W | ~$750M to $850M per year |
| SOM | NewCo at 400 to 900 installs a year (base case years 2 to 3) | 1.5% to 3% of SAM; $9M to $22M revenue at red line |
Demand drivers. Retail power at 30 to 37c/kWh and rising; ageing housing stock (40 to 60 years) being retrofitted; heat-pump and storage incentives in CT and MA; Connecticut's Energy Storage Solutions programme, where a $10k battery can return roughly $14k over 10 years; 30% of solar installs needing a roof. Headwinds. Market down 20% in 2026 and likely 10 to 15% more in 2027; 25D homeowner credit expired; FEOC content rules on TPO equipment; a possible 40c/W tariff on non-domestic modules from January 2027; Massachusetts buyers cancel about one in five signed contracts.
Competition. National TPO originators (Sunrun, Palmetto, Freedom Forever), regional EPCs (HelioSolar, Team Sunshine, the MA HVAC/solar firms), and a long tail of 3-year-lifespan dealers now exiting. Positioning: price and service over brand. NewCo's cost structure (offshore back office, no W-2 sales force, labour-only install) is 15 to 40c/W below a full-service local EPC, which funds either a sharper price or a fatter rep commission in a market where reps follow the money.
4. Products and offer
| Product | Share of deals | Customer value | NewCo economics |
|---|---|---|---|
| TPO lease/PPA (LightReach, Enfin) | 70 to 80% | $0 down, 10 to 30% below utility rate, no tax appetite needed | Paid at red line by financier; AVL equipment only; funded 70% at NTP, 30% after install |
| Loan or cash (Climate First) | 15 to 25% | Lowest lifetime cost, non-FEOC equipment allowed | Highest gross per watt until the 40c/W tariff lands; then equivalent to TPO |
| Battery attach (EcoFlow 10 kW / 13 kWh at ~$8k cost) | Target 25 to 35% in CT | Backup plus ESS programme payments | $2k to $3k extra gross per attach, not in the base model |
| Roofing and heat pumps | Roof on ~30% of installs | One contractor, one package, state incentives | Partner-delivered; referral margin only, not in the base model |
| Prepaid lease / tax-equity LLC (Midas Wealth) | Opportunistic from year 2 | Customer keeps the 30% credit via investor structure | Complex; only after core products run smoothly |
5. Go-to-market
- Lead generation from India: Meta and Google paid, SEO and local brand, review generation from real installs, AI confirmation calls. Each rep receives 5 to 10 set appointments a week. Reps pay a $300 lead fee per closed deal, which partly offsets ad spend.
- Sales force: 5 seasoned 1099 reps in the pilot, 10 by month 6, 15 by month 12, 22 by month 24. Recruiting via Dan's network and Indeed; demand is high because of industry layoffs. Reps sell remotely over Zoom in most cases.
- Compensation: red line $2.70/W; rep keeps the spread above it (typically $0.30 to $0.60/W). Milestone pay: M1 of $1,000 to $2,000 at NTP, capped at 20% of commission; balance within two weeks of install. Sales directors earn a 10c/W override.
- Territory: Connecticut and Rhode Island first (lower cancellations, strong storage incentives), Massachusetts from month 7 once the second EPC partner is signed.
- Brand: domestic corporation, American front line, Indian ownership stated openly as backing. No purchased reviews; the FTC fake-review rule carries per-review penalties and would destroy the trust story.
6. Operations and launch plan
- Weeks 1 to 8 (setup): entity, bank account, HIC licences, E1 agreement, insurance, SSA template approved by CT Green Bank, labour-only contract with the install partner, dealer applications to LightReach, Enfin and Climate First (ride partner accounts if declined), software stack (Aurora or OpenSolar generation data, CRM, dialer), office lease, 5 reps recruited and trained.
- Per deal: appointment set from India, rep closes on Zoom, SSA signed digitally, Surat builds the permit packet within 72 hours, CT ops person hand-delivers to the AHJ, financier issues NTP and funds 70%, equipment ordered (partner inventory or safe-harboured AVL stock), glass on roof in about 45 days, photos and serials submitted, balance funded within 10 working days.
- Procurement roadmap: partner inventory in months 1 to 9; own financier accounts around month 10; direct FEOC-compliant supply (Satpak Texas plant from Q1 2027 once AVL-listed, EcoFlow for storage, domestic racking from IronRidge or SnapNrack) around month 15.
- Controls: daily cash and P&L review, rep advances capped, cancellation tracking by rep and territory, one SSA template, reserve of one month of fixed cost held at all times.
7. Unit economics
The rep keeps the spread between the sale price and the red line, so NewCo's gross is red line minus installed cost. The three stages below are the plan's margin roadmap; the conservative, base and optimistic cases differ mainly in how fast NewCo moves from A to C and in what a signed deal costs in advertising.
| Stage | Red line $/W | Installed cost $/W | Gross $/W | Gross per 9 kW deal | After override and lead fee |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| A. TPO via partner EPC accounts | 2.70 | 2.50 | 0.20 | $1,800 | $1,200 |
| B. TPO on own LightReach/Enfin accounts | 2.70 | 2.35 | 0.35 | $3,150 | $2,550 |
| C. Own accounts + direct procurement | 2.70 | 2.10 | 0.60 | $5,400 | $4,800 |
| D. Cash/loan non-FEOC (<=25% of deals) | 2.30 | 1.90 | 0.40 | $3,600 | $3,000 |
Ad cost per installed deal under three funnel assumptions (cost per lead, lead-to-appointment, appointment-to-close, cancellation): Dan's heuristic $50 / 60% / 30% / 10% gives about $310; the realistic case $80 / 40% / 20% / 20% gives about $1,250; the pessimistic case $120 / 30% / 15% / 25% gives about $3,550. Feeding ten reps at 7 to 10 appointments each per week needs 300 to 430 appointments a month, which at $200 per set appointment is $60k to $86k of monthly ad spend. The plan therefore starts with five reps.
8. Financial projections (36 months, three scenarios)
Annual summary
| Metric | Conservative Y1 | Conservative Y2 | Conservative Y3 | Base Y1 | Base Y2 | Base Y3 | Optimistic Y1 | Optimistic Y2 | Optimistic Y3 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Installs | 113 | 306 | 360 | 244 | 698 | 911 | 444 | 1,411 | 1,780 |
| Signed deals | 198 | 425 | 480 | 398 | 920 | 1,152 | 692 | 1,754 | 2,112 |
| MW installed | 1.0 | 2.8 | 3.2 | 2.2 | 6.3 | 8.2 | 4.0 | 12.7 | 16.0 |
| Revenue at red line | $2.75M | $7.43M | $8.75M | $5.93M | $16.97M | $22.15M | $10.79M | $34.29M | $43.26M |
| Gross profit | $204k | $1.25M | $1.94M | $600k | $3.56M | $4.92M | $1.50M | $7.62M | $9.61M |
| Ad spend | $395k | $850k | $960k | $398k | $920k | $1.15M | $311k | $790k | $950k |
| Director override | $102k | $275k | $324k | $219k | $628k | $820k | $400k | $1.27M | $1.60M |
| Fixed cost | $310k | $406k | $478k | $312k | $426k | $511k | $322k | $469k | $563k |
| EBITDA | $-569k | $-190k | $290k | $-257k | $1.79M | $2.71M | $601k | $5.51M | $7.03M |
| EBITDA margin | -20.7% | -2.6% | 3.3% | -4.3% | 10.6% | 12.2% | 5.6% | 16.1% | 16.3% |
Base case, monthly, year 1 and year 2
| M | Reps | Signed | Installs | $/W cost | Revenue | Gross | Ads | Fixed | EBITDA | Net cash | Cash |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 2.50 | $0k | $0k | $0k | $24k | $-24k | $-69k | $-69k |
| 2 | 0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 2.50 | $0k | $0k | $0k | $24k | $-24k | $-49k | $-118k |
| 3 | 5 | 12.0 | 0.0 | 2.50 | $0k | $0k | $12k | $24k | $-36k | $-52k | $-170k |
| 4 | 6 | 14.4 | 3.8 | 2.50 | $93k | $7k | $14k | $24k | $-34k | $22k | $-147k |
| 5 | 8 | 32.0 | 10.4 | 2.50 | $252k | $19k | $32k | $24k | $-43k | $-101k | $-248k |
| 6 | 10 | 40.0 | 17.2 | 2.50 | $417k | $31k | $40k | $24k | $-43k | $20k | $-228k |
| 7 | 10 | 40.0 | 28.2 | 2.50 | $684k | $51k | $40k | $28k | $-34k | $-65k | $-292k |
| 8 | 11 | 44.0 | 32.0 | 2.50 | $778k | $58k | $44k | $28k | $-34k | $-77k | $-370k |
| 9 | 12 | 48.0 | 33.3 | 2.50 | $809k | $60k | $48k | $28k | $-36k | $-33k | $-402k |
| 10 | 13 | 52.0 | 36.5 | 2.35 | $886k | $115k | $52k | $28k | $13k | $1k | $-401k |
| 11 | 14 | 56.0 | 39.7 | 2.35 | $964k | $125k | $56k | $28k | $17k | $4k | $-397k |
| 12 | 15 | 60.0 | 42.9 | 2.35 | $1.04M | $135k | $60k | $29k | $21k | $7k | $-390k |
| 13 | 15 | 60.0 | 46.1 | 2.35 | $1.12M | $145k | $60k | $35k | $23k | $13k | $-376k |
| 14 | 16 | 64.0 | 48.0 | 2.35 | $1.17M | $151k | $64k | $35k | $24k | $-12k | $-388k |
| 15 | 17 | 68.0 | 49.3 | 2.10 | $1.20M | $266k | $68k | $35k | $134k | $132k | $-257k |
| 16 | 18 | 72.0 | 52.5 | 2.10 | $1.28M | $283k | $72k | $35k | $145k | $128k | $-129k |
| 17 | 18 | 72.0 | 55.7 | 2.10 | $1.35M | $301k | $72k | $35k | $160k | $147k | $19k |
| 18 | 19 | 76.0 | 57.6 | 2.10 | $1.40M | $311k | $76k | $35k | $165k | $126k | $145k |
| 19 | 20 | 80.0 | 58.9 | 2.10 | $1.43M | $318k | $80k | $36k | $167k | $162k | $307k |
| 20 | 20 | 80.0 | 62.1 | 2.10 | $1.51M | $335k | $80k | $36k | $182k | $168k | $474k |
| 21 | 21 | 84.0 | 64.0 | 2.10 | $1.56M | $346k | $84k | $36k | $187k | $147k | $621k |
| 22 | 22 | 88.0 | 65.3 | 2.10 | $1.59M | $353k | $88k | $36k | $189k | $182k | $803k |
| 23 | 22 | 88.0 | 68.5 | 2.10 | $1.66M | $370k | $88k | $36k | $205k | $188k | $991k |
| 24 | 22 | 88.0 | 70.4 | 2.10 | $1.71M | $380k | $88k | $36k | $214k | $176k | $1.17M |
Base case, year 3 by quarter
| Quarter | Installs | Revenue | EBITDA | Cash end |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Y3 Q1 | 220 | $5.35M | $642k | $1.74M |
| Y3 Q2 | 230 | $5.60M | $690k | $2.35M |
| Y3 Q3 | 230 | $5.60M | $690k | $2.96M |
| Y3 Q4 | 230 | $5.60M | $690k | $3.57M |
Conservative case, monthly, year 1 and year 2
| M | Reps | Signed | Installs | $/W cost | Revenue | Gross | Ads | Fixed | EBITDA | Net cash | Cash |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 2.50 | $0k | $0k | $0k | $24k | $-24k | $-69k | $-69k |
| 2 | 0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 2.50 | $0k | $0k | $0k | $24k | $-24k | $-49k | $-118k |
| 3 | 5 | 7.5 | 0.0 | 2.50 | $0k | $0k | $15k | $24k | $-39k | $-49k | $-167k |
| 4 | 5 | 7.5 | 2.2 | 2.50 | $55k | $4k | $15k | $24k | $-36k | $-2k | $-169k |
| 5 | 6 | 15.0 | 5.6 | 2.50 | $137k | $10k | $30k | $24k | $-47k | $-85k | $-253k |
| 6 | 7 | 17.5 | 7.9 | 2.50 | $191k | $14k | $35k | $24k | $-49k | $-22k | $-275k |
| 7 | 8 | 20.0 | 12.0 | 2.50 | $292k | $22k | $40k | $28k | $-53k | $-75k | $-350k |
| 8 | 9 | 22.5 | 13.9 | 2.50 | $337k | $25k | $45k | $28k | $-56k | $-62k | $-412k |
| 9 | 10 | 25.0 | 15.8 | 2.50 | $383k | $28k | $50k | $28k | $-59k | $-66k | $-478k |
| 10 | 10 | 25.0 | 17.6 | 2.50 | $428k | $32k | $50k | $28k | $-57k | $-61k | $-539k |
| 11 | 11 | 27.5 | 18.8 | 2.50 | $456k | $34k | $55k | $28k | $-60k | $-80k | $-619k |
| 12 | 12 | 30.0 | 19.5 | 2.50 | $474k | $35k | $60k | $28k | $-64k | $-65k | $-684k |
| 13 | 12 | 30.0 | 21.4 | 2.50 | $519k | $38k | $60k | $34k | $-68k | $-74k | $-758k |
| 14 | 12 | 30.0 | 22.5 | 2.35 | $547k | $71k | $60k | $34k | $-36k | $-55k | $-813k |
| 15 | 13 | 32.5 | 22.5 | 2.35 | $547k | $71k | $65k | $34k | $-41k | $-55k | $-868k |
| 16 | 13 | 32.5 | 23.2 | 2.35 | $565k | $73k | $65k | $34k | $-40k | $-38k | $-906k |
| 17 | 14 | 35.0 | 24.4 | 2.35 | $592k | $77k | $70k | $34k | $-42k | $-65k | $-970k |
| 18 | 14 | 35.0 | 25.1 | 2.35 | $611k | $79k | $70k | $34k | $-40k | $-39k | $-1.01M |
| 19 | 15 | 37.5 | 26.2 | 2.35 | $638k | $83k | $75k | $34k | $-42k | $-65k | $-1.08M |
| 20 | 15 | 37.5 | 27.0 | 2.10 | $656k | $146k | $75k | $34k | $21k | $20k | $-1.06M |
| 21 | 15 | 37.5 | 28.1 | 2.10 | $683k | $152k | $75k | $34k | $26k | $5k | $-1.05M |
| 22 | 15 | 37.5 | 28.1 | 2.10 | $683k | $152k | $75k | $34k | $26k | $13k | $-1.04M |
| 23 | 16 | 40.0 | 28.1 | 2.10 | $683k | $152k | $80k | $34k | $21k | $5k | $-1.03M |
| 24 | 16 | 40.0 | 28.9 | 2.10 | $702k | $156k | $80k | $34k | $25k | $23k | $-1.01M |
Optimistic case, monthly, year 1 and year 2
| M | Reps | Signed | Installs | $/W cost | Revenue | Gross | Ads | Fixed | EBITDA | Net cash | Cash |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 2.50 | $0k | $0k | $0k | $24k | $-24k | $-69k | $-69k |
| 2 | 0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 2.50 | $0k | $0k | $0k | $24k | $-24k | $-49k | $-118k |
| 3 | 5 | 16.5 | 0.0 | 2.50 | $0k | $0k | $7k | $24k | $-31k | $-54k | $-171k |
| 4 | 8 | 26.4 | 5.6 | 2.50 | $136k | $10k | $12k | $24k | $-29k | $45k | $-126k |
| 5 | 10 | 55.0 | 17.4 | 2.50 | $423k | $31k | $25k | $24k | $-28k | $-79k | $-204k |
| 6 | 12 | 66.0 | 32.2 | 2.50 | $782k | $58k | $30k | $24k | $-15k | $80k | $-125k |
| 7 | 13 | 71.5 | 50.5 | 2.35 | $1.23M | $159k | $32k | $29k | $68k | $1k | $-123k |
| 8 | 14 | 77.0 | 58.0 | 2.35 | $1.41M | $183k | $35k | $29k | $84k | $51k | $-72k |
| 9 | 15 | 82.5 | 62.6 | 2.35 | $1.52M | $197k | $37k | $30k | $93k | $80k | $8k |
| 10 | 16 | 88.0 | 67.3 | 2.35 | $1.64M | $212k | $40k | $30k | $102k | $87k | $95k |
| 11 | 18 | 99.0 | 72.0 | 2.35 | $1.75M | $227k | $45k | $30k | $109k | $86k | $181k |
| 12 | 20 | 110.0 | 78.5 | 2.10 | $1.91M | $424k | $50k | $31k | $297k | $302k | $483k |
| 13 | 20 | 110.0 | 87.9 | 2.10 | $2.14M | $475k | $50k | $37k | $335k | $332k | $815k |
| 14 | 22 | 121.0 | 93.5 | 2.10 | $2.27M | $505k | $54k | $38k | $357k | $279k | $1.09M |
| 15 | 24 | 132.0 | 97.2 | 2.10 | $2.36M | $525k | $59k | $38k | $370k | $391k | $1.48M |
| 16 | 25 | 137.5 | 106.6 | 2.10 | $2.59M | $576k | $62k | $38k | $411k | $397k | $1.88M |
| 17 | 26 | 143.0 | 114.1 | 2.10 | $2.77M | $616k | $64k | $39k | $444k | $399k | $2.28M |
| 18 | 27 | 148.5 | 118.7 | 2.10 | $2.89M | $641k | $67k | $39k | $464k | $438k | $2.72M |
| 19 | 28 | 154.0 | 123.4 | 2.10 | $3.00M | $666k | $69k | $39k | $484k | $456k | $3.17M |
| 20 | 28 | 154.0 | 128.1 | 2.10 | $3.11M | $692k | $69k | $40k | $506k | $484k | $3.66M |
| 21 | 29 | 159.5 | 130.9 | 2.10 | $3.18M | $707k | $72k | $40k | $517k | $458k | $4.12M |
| 22 | 30 | 165.0 | 132.8 | 2.10 | $3.23M | $717k | $74k | $40k | $523k | $514k | $4.63M |
| 23 | 30 | 165.0 | 137.4 | 2.10 | $3.34M | $742k | $74k | $40k | $545k | $522k | $5.15M |
| 24 | 30 | 165.0 | 140.2 | 2.10 | $3.41M | $757k | $74k | $40k | $559k | $504k | $5.66M |
Cash line is cumulative operating cash before any funding, so its minimum is the funding requirement. Revenue is booked at the red line; rep commission above the red line is paid by the financier or customer and never passes through NewCo's P&L. Conservative case assumes management keeps scaling despite losses; in practice tranche 2 would not be released and losses stop near $125k.
9. Use of funds and milestones
| Tranche | Amount | Released when | Spent on |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1. Pilot | $75k | Day one | Entity, licences, SSA, insurance, office, software, 5 reps, $15k/month ads for 3 months, two months of fixed cost |
| 2. Build-out | $175k | Pilot shows ad cost per installed deal under $1,500 and cancellations under 20% | Reps to 10 to 15, ads to $30k to $40k/month, second ops hire, Massachusetts launch, own financier accounts |
| 3. Working capital | $250k | Volume passes 30 installs/month | Equipment deposits for direct procurement, 1.5 months of deals in flight, cancellation buffer; ideally replaced by a US bank line in year 2 |
Base case peak cash need is about $400k in month 9, so the $500k commitment leaves a 25% buffer. In the conservative case tranche 2 is never released and the loss is limited to roughly $100k to $125k. Milestones: first signed deal month 3, first funded install month 5, own financier accounts month 10, 50 installs a month by month 15, 500 installs trailing twelve months by month 22 (the threshold at which US residential solar companies become sellable), direct procurement live by month 15.
10. Pre-mortem
It is October 2028. NewCo has been wound down. Looking back, what happened?
| Category | Failure mode | How it played out | Likelihood | Impact |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Assumptions | Lead cost was 3x the plan | Set appointments cost $400, close rates were 15%, each installed deal cost $3,500 in ads. Reps left within six weeks. The company kept hiring reps into a loss-making funnel. | High | High |
| Execution | Never got own finance accounts | LightReach and Enfin held to the two-year rule. NewCo stayed at the partner's red line, making $1,800 a deal, and never covered fixed cost. | Medium | High |
| People | Dan stepped back | Five other ventures plus a dispute over override and equity. Recruiting, EPC relationships and the licence face went with him. | Medium | High |
| External | Tariff and FEOC rules | The 40c/W tariff landed, non-FEOC cash deals died, and the Satpak AVL listing slipped a year. | Medium | Medium |
| Execution | Cash flow stretched | Volume grew faster than the working-capital line. Equipment paid before the financier's balance arrived, cancellations at 25% left stranded inventory. | Medium | High |
| People | Reputation hit | An accent-on-the-phone complaint went viral locally, followed by a one-star campaign. The "Indian company" framing stuck. | Low | Medium |
| External | Market fell further | Residential down another 20% in 2027; financiers tightened dealer terms; the partner EPC folded mid-pipeline. | Medium | Medium |
| Assumptions | Massachusetts too early | One in five signed deals cancelled, highest insurance cost, and a sceptical buyer base ate the margin. | Medium | Low |
Top three mitigations. (1) Lead cost: run the 90-day pilot with 5 reps and $15k a month of ads before hiring anyone else; stop if installed-deal ad cost exceeds $1,500 or cancellations exceed 20%. Owner: Siddharth. (2) Finance accounts: apply on day one with the Indian P&L and install history; if refused, negotiate a 10c pass-through with a 12-month sunset and reapply quarterly. Owner: Dan. (3) Key-person: written comp with vesting, a second named E1 and a second EPC inside six months, all relationships held in NewCo's name. Owner: Keyur.
11. Assumptions and what is excluded
- System size 9 kW. Red line $2.70/W to financier or customer. Installed cost $2.50/W (partner accounts), $2.35/W (own accounts), $2.10/W (direct procurement).
- Signed deals per rep per month: 2.5 conservative, 4.0 base, 5.5 optimistic, with a 60% ramp in the first two selling months. Cancellations 25% / 20% / 15%.
- Ad cost per signed deal: $2,000 / $1,000 / $450. Rep lead fee $300 per installed deal. Director override 10c/W on installed watts.
- Installs lag signing by 1 to 2 months (40% next month, 60% the month after). Financier funds 70% at NTP the month after signing and 30% the month after install.
- Fixed cost $23.8k a month at launch (Dan base $8k, US ops $5k, office $1.5k, Surat 3 FTE $3.6k, software $1.5k, insurance $1.2k, legal and accounting $1.5k, travel $1.5k), rising by $4k at month 7, $6k at month 13 and $6k at month 25, plus $60 per install above 30 a month.
- One-off setup $70k across months 1 and 2. Own accounts month 14 / 10 / 7; direct procurement month 20 / 15 / 12.
- Not modelled: battery, roof and heat-pump attach margin; the prepaid-lease product; any acquisition of a distressed installer; Dan's override above the 10c director pool.
Sources: call with Dan Katzman (October 2026) for per-watt costs, red lines, rep compensation, funding timelines, market direction and partner names; theStacc and Keyur Rakholiya's team for India-side costs; market sizing from public household counts and 2025 to 2026 state install run-rates, to be verified against SEIA before external use. Lead-cost ranges are planning estimates and are the single most important number to measure in the pilot.